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Increasing worries have emerged regarding the potential of warfare between East African neighbors, the Ethiopian government and the Eritrean government, as hostile discourse has intensified in recent weeks.

What Has Ethiopia Said?

Ethiopia's, being landlocked, calls for entry to the sea coast through Eritrean territory has sparked a fierce war of words.

Ethiopian Prime Minister previously announced in 2023 that his government's access to the sea was an existential matter, remarks that Eritrea ignored.

Diplomatic connections between the both governments have frequently been strained. Following a decades-long fight for sovereignty, Eritrea, which has a 1,350km (840-mile) Red Sea coastline, legally broke away from Ethiopia in the early 1990s, leaving it cut off from the sea.

Subsequently, a territorial conflict erupted in which over a hundred thousand people lost their lives.

Current Comments from Ethiopia's Government

Abiy and military leader Field Marshal Birhanu Jula have openly claimed ownership of Eritrea's maritime facility of the port of Assab – approximately 60 kilometers from the frontier - and implied the wish to take it by force.

On 1 September, the Prime Minister said the country's "error" of being denied passage to the Red Sea as a result of Eritrea's separation would be "corrected tomorrow".

Ethiopia's ambassador to neighboring Kenya, retired Gen Bacha Debele, said that Assab was "Ethiopian property" and would be returned "using武力".

Eritrea's Reaction to the Threats

Despite continuous threats from Ethiopian officials, Eritrea's response has been restricted to concise remarks on X from Communications Head Yemane Gebremeskel.

The minister has dismissed Ethiopia's demand for maritime entry calling it "hazardous" and a "toxic agenda" of "irredentism" – a strategy of reclaiming previous domains.

The information ministry alerted on 16 September that moves to validate "obvious provocation" would have significant repercussions for the Ethiopian government and its neighbouring countries and is a "redline that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Military Preparations on the Ground

There have been little evidence of significant troop deployments in the boundary zones between the two countries.

Nonetheless, in the country, state television has shown graduation ceremonies of numerous trainees at different defense facilities.

The director of human resources department of the armed forces, the officer, commented lately in an conversation that the military was in a "reliable position" as "many thousands of young people" were enlisting, which he said was "a signal to our enemies".

Past Roots of the Conflict

For more than half a century from 1890, the territory was administered by colonial powers.

After World War II, it was then managed by the British military before evolving into a federated part of Ethiopia.

Yet in the early 1960s the ruler terminated this arrangement and the region became fully incorporated into Ethiopia.

A thirty-year armed struggle ensued, concluding with military reversal in the early 1990s. Autonomy was then approved by voters in a plebiscite in 1993.

Temporarily in the 1990s, there were good relations between the leadership in Ethiopia's capital and Asmara, but they fell out over the exact location of their common border, leading to conflict in 1998.

Though this finished in a ceasefire agreement in 2000, it was never fully implemented, and the two nations remained at loggerheads.

This ended in 2018, when the Prime Minister made overtures to Eritrea's leader Isaias Afwerki. The two endorsed a announcement that the war was concluded – a action that gained the Prime Minister the Nobel Peace Prize.

The both administrations were then partners in the country's recent armed struggle in Tigray.

But ties have later worsened once more.