Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in academia but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with the basics. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two essays that seek objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but each side has has valuable insights to learn from the other's arguments."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster should join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
