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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple formula. It frequently acts as a type of apology. We regret we got wrong your team in our preseason predictions.

In theory, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who engineered the biggest turnaround receives the prize. In reality, it sparks an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent leadership or simply the biggest shock.

But the latest competition is distinctly unique. The group of nominees is remarkably strong. It has been the year of comebacks. The NFL has been messy, with reigning division winners fading and recent underperformers improving together. In an ordinary year, a coach leading the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in this chaotic and fun year, he's facing multiple other outstanding coaches.

Below is how the hypothetical ballot could shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore quarterbacks. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you transform a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. In the right ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the chance to display his otherworldly ability. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a brief surge – it's sustained excellence. Under his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the system rather than freelancing. It is an offense constructed entirely in the coach's image: a bully-ball run game, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that creates wide-open receivers everywhere. Williams has thrived. And when openings haven't been there, he's been able to create magic from broken plays.

Johnson came to the Bears with a specific offensive blueprint. Almost each decision – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has worked. This is rare for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who walked into the building with the immense hype he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme wizard but the kind of culture builder that can inject new life into an organization.

In a normal year, Johnson would be the runaway choice. But this isn't a typical campaign!

Where his candidacy runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears currently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Coaches can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defensive work. With a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term winning. However Johnson falls short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's another first-time head coach who has orchestrated a swift resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, he has nailed the leadership stuff, which was not a guarantee following his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason moves.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, he trusted first-timers. From the head coach himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That type of approach is exciting in theory, but frequently fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a new job on the fly. But Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements into sync.

Following an initial hot start, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the track. A midseason setback caused the team stumbling once more. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped pursuing explosive plays and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more.

The results are clear. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the slightest knock in the standings because he took over a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year argument has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a different quarterback and partnering him with an new play-caller could have derailed the season in October. Rather, it defined it. By the mid point of the year, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has cooled off after that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the schedule, placing him just one spot ahead of peers.

Still